The War Is No Short Term Regional Crisis

At our Christmas concert, I referenced the US Senate blockade on US military support for Ukraine and the waning interest in the beleaguered country across Europe. Today, there are those who argue that indifference would be preferable to the current state of play in our continent. The Sunday Times pointed out earlier in June that, ‘In the midst of a march to the right across Europe, from Germany to France and beyond, parties on the rise lean closer to Putin than the Ukrainian president would like – and public opinion is shifting.’ According to the EU’s latest Eurobarometer public opinion survey, 83% of Europeans agree with welcoming Ukrainians fleeing the conflict, but only 60% support the purchase and supply of military equipment to Ukraine, a figure that drops to less than 50% in Italy and several other central European countries.

Across the pond, the US Senate blockade has now been removed and the flow of armoury into Ukraine has begun, along with a relaxation of the restrictions for its use. President Biden has just signed a ten year security deal with Ukraine and in other positive news, world leaders at the 2024 G7 summit are focussing on helping to rebuild Ukraine, having already agreed to use an estimated $285 billion in frozen Russian assets to fund the country’s reconstruction. But a potential Trump victory looms large on the horizon, with potentially devastating consequences for Ukraine. There is nothing to stop the returning President, should he succeed, from reversing Biden’s commitments and of course NATO is vulnerable under a Trump administration.

In any event, the global order is changing before our eyes and once unthinkable scenarios are rising to the top of the agenda of political and military leaders worldwide. Commentators are beginning to see Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as far from a short lived regional crisis but rather part of his long term revolution against the West. Stephen Covington, a longtime NATO advisor, states that Putin is ‘leading Russia into a new phase of strategic confrontation’ to, in the words of the Economist, ‘dismantle the American-led security system that emerged after the second world war’.

Meanwhile, the harsh realities of combat continue to destroy lives on and off the field, leaving an estimated two thirds of the Ukrainian adult population reeling with PTSD and other crushing mental health disorders. One third of the national grid is down and although able to top up with solar and nuclear power over the summer months, nobody is under any illusion that the biting cold of winter won’t bring an extra layer of interminable horror and suffering.

Yet, from one day to the next, our Ukrainian guests manage to love and laugh, to gather their families together to eat and drink and remember the good times, to quite simply get on with the business of living and raising their children. It is humbling to behold. It is we who have learnt from them. And it continues to be our privilege to support them in whatever ways we are able.

This is only possible with the unwavering backing and constancy of our supporters… so

Thank You, Thank You, Thank You

We hope to see you at our Christmas Concert and please take care in the interim.

All the best,

Isobel
On behalf of the Glorious Alchemy Choir and the Welcome Bureau Trustees